Worst yet to come in Mumbai
Worst yet to come in Mumbai
The city on Monday recorded 510 new Covid-19 positive cases, taking the total number past the 9000 mark. Eighteen people died on Monday, taking the cumulative figure for deaths to 361. But this, it seems, is just the tip of the iceberg. A central team visiting Mumbai last month had predicted that Mumbai at its peak – sometime in mid or late-May – will see 70,000 cases. While the BMC had then differed and said the peak would be 35,000, it is now coming around to the view that it could be much worse.
Municipal Commissioner Praveen Pardeshi, in reply to a message sent by this newspaper, said the BMC’s target is to have 76,000 isolation beds ready as soon as possible. “We have to plan for that eventuality. But we hope that we don’t reach that number,” he said.Hope is a poor protection against a virus as nasty as Covid-19. Anant Bhan, a researcher in global health, bioethics and health policy, said the numbers can’t be argued with. “If they are planning isolation beds in such large numbers, their own projections and doubling models must have indicated a surge,” he said.
While the BMC had differed with the Centre’s projection of a peak of 75,000 for Mumbai, it has now begun to prepare for the eventuality. BMC readies new isolation beds – 300 at the Mahalaxmi Racecourse, 100 at Nehru Science Centre, 200 at Nehru Planetarium, 500 at BKC’s MMRDA grounds, 200 more at Richardson Cruddas, and a new ICU facility at NSCI dome There could not be a clearer indication of how bad the corona virus crisis is going to get for Mumbai.On Monday, the 40th day of lockdown, the BMC was working feverishly to add new isolation beds, especially in the worst effected south-central Mumbai.
Soon, one of Mumbai’s prettiest open spaces, the Mahalaxmi Racecourse will have a 200-bed isolation facility in its vast parking lot. Not far from it, to the Racecourse’s north, two must-sees for tourists – the Nehru planetarium and the Nehru Science Centre are also being converted into isolation centres with 200 and 100 beds respectively. To the south of the Racecourse, again not far from it, 200 isolation beds are being added at the defunct Richardson Cruddas factory near JJ Hospital. At Mahim – the northern tip of the island city – 600 beds are being laid out at the Mahim Nature Park, and in suburban Bandra-east, the sprawling MMRDA grounds will soon have a 500-bed isolation ward.
Hope is a poor protection against a virus as nasty as Covid-19. Preparing while planning such a large number of isolation beds is a step in the right direction given that Mumbai is topping 500 cases every day, what is worrying is the paucity of health workers. “The priority remains preventing the virus from spreading. If there is a larger spread then even 76,000 beds will fall short. He said the focus should be on preventing a surge spread. Because it will be very difficult to get enough staff and trained medical or health care workers if that happens.China was forced to import health workers from other cities and regions to Wuhan. “They only had to contain Wuhan. But here in India that won’t be possible. Mumbai needs a lot of focus and attention from the highest level.
Apart from the number of new beds in the making quoted earlier in this report, the BMC has also acquired the Manohar Joshi School in Dharavi for a 600-bed isolation centre for high-risk contacts. “We have moved 137 high risk patients there and after the capacity exhausts we will move the contacts to Mahim Nature Park,” said Assistant Municipal Commissioner, G-north ward, Kiran Dighavkar. So far, Dharavi has recorded 632 cases. The NSCI Dome isolation facility in Worli will become a quasi-hospital with the addition of 30 portable ICU beds with ventilators. “We have already started an OPD there. Oxygen lines for beds have been laid. So, the NSCI Dome is now a Covid-19 hospital,” said Sharad Ughade, Assistant Municipal Commissioner, G-south ward.
Since of the projected 75,000 cases, 63,000 are expected to be asymptomatic, BMC officials said that their main focus was on creating isolation centres for asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients, which they call Covid-19 Care Centres.
